“This is nothing other than a temporary time-out for Ukrainian soldiers, nothing more. Our goal is a long-term peaceful resolution,” Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told Russian state television on Thursday, according to the report. Gold has gained 1.6% week to date, pacing for their second weekly gain. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which encompasses both gold and silver miners, rose 2% and was on pace for its third straight day of gains. Gold’s April-dated futures were last trading near 2,963.3, near their highs of the session.

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Its struggles haven’t changed despite last week’s gains for indices. The gap down from the bearish wedge hasn’t closed, and moving averages remain overhead resistance. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is often the odd man out relative to its peers among the major equity indexes in terms of price action. But the small-caps appear poised to follow the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow ($DJI) into new yearly highs, leaving the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) as the only laggard in this regard. To be fair, the SPX and $DJI made not just 52-week highs but all-time highs this week, whereas the RUT is still far short of that spike into its all-time own high of 2,458.86 that occurred in November 2021.

Nevertheless, the RUT has exhibited some vigor heading into the conclusion of this trading week. Yesterday’s interactive brokers 2021 review +1.63% gain pushed price above a repeated ceiling of resistance roughly around 2,260 from July, and the candle closed near the highs. This means the small-cap index needs only about a +0.6% move to break above that high of 2,300, and there are few signs the trend is slowing down.

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The histogram shows where the open and last price fall within that range. It’s clear, however, that consumers are feeling less and less enthused about the state of their pocketbooks. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey came in at 57.9 on Friday, well below expectations of 63. Megan Cerullo is a New York-based engulfing candle strategy reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics.

Key Facts

“So it’s not pricing in greater than a 50% probability of a recession at this point.” While the Russell 2000 is only two percentage points away from entering bear market territory, Bank of America Research economists say it’s not pricing in a recession, and they still expect the economy to grow this year. Although we may have a possible ‘bear trap’ in the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA; this might be the silver lining that feeds into the next stage of the rally. The founder of Niles Investment Management said he bought the dip in these beaten-down shares this week. Going into 2025, Niles named cash as a top pick for the first time since the market drop in 2022.

• Much of the recent market action can be contributed to an unwinding of investors’ positioning, according to Michael Green, chief strategist of Simplify Asset Management.
• Broad-based tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, plus 25% levies on steel and aluminum threaten to raise costs for both businesses and consumers.
• With the existing upward channel dating back to 2023 still intact, we can now look for an accelerated move higher to take the index out of this channel and into a new phase for its bull market.
• The rally was largely driven by Thursday’s session, where the Russell 2000 posted a remarkable 3.6% daily gain.
• American Eagle manufactured around a fifth of its global production in China last year.

Price remains comfortably above major moving average, even very short-term indicators such as the 9-day Exponential Moving Average. There’s a far less frightening explanation for the Russell 2000’s drubbing of the S&P, tied to basic market principles and policy expectations, rather than the impending doom of a burst bubble. The Russell 2000 is actually still down 2% from its 2021 all-time high, while the S&P is up 13% from its 2021 peak, so it would take quite an extended stretch of small-cap mania for the index to catch up. The Russell 2000 also benefited heavily from bumper inflation data on July 11 which reignited hopes for interest rate cuts beginning in September.

But the details of that data could give policymakers pause for thought. Please bear with us as we address this and restore your personalized lists. Still, small businesses could face significant profit margin erosion with tariffs in place. “It’s more diversified at the sectoral level, so it is more representative of U.S. growth dynamics,” Skanda Amarnath, a macroeconomist and executive director of Employ America, told CBS MoneyWatch. Small companies are more exposed to market shocks than larger ones, given that they operate on thinner margins and typically have higher borrowing costs, making the index more sensitive to changes in the economy.

The consumer price index — a broad-based measure of costs across the U.S. economy — increased 0.2% month-on-month in February, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8%. Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday after a soft inflation report in the U.S. helped two of the three benchmarks on Wall Street reverse course from two days of losses. The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, was flat in February — another potential sign that inflation pressures may be ebbing. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a month-over-month increase of 0.3%.

Never before has bearish opinion been above 57% for three consecutive weeks, the association said. “We now expect the FOMC to lower rates 25bp twice this year, in June and in September. We added another rate cut to our previous baseline that assumed one rate cut in June,” wrote chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni. “For 2026, we expect three 25bp rate cuts, in March, June and September.” Barclays believes President Trump’s higher tariff policies could lower U.S. On the back of these assumptions, the bank recently added one more interest rate cut to its forecast for this year.

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Mass federal layoffs initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have also created tremendous uncertainty for businesses. February’s producer price index — which measures the cost of producing consumer goods and is a good indicator of inflationary pressures — was flat that month, compared with an expected increase. This follows a softer-than-expected February consumer price index reading. The disorderly rollout of Trump’s U.S. trade policy has rattled markets this month, with investors worried it was pressuring corporate and consumer confidence. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are respectively on track for losses of 4.3% and 4.9% week to date.

• There is also an uptick in relative performance over the S&P.
• The Russell 2000 comprises small companies across a variety sectors, and is widely considered to be a benchmark for small U.S. stocks.
• Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, has started to rise from a trough, which could suggest that the upswing is growing in intensity.
• The reverse is also true, hence the Russell 2000’s nightmarish performance since the rate hiking cycle began in 2022.
• Technicals are in good shape, particularly On-Balance-Volume, which has been rallying steadily since 2023.

“Instead, we fear it speaks towards a shift into a period of sustained weakness.” Nearly 60% of retail investors remain bearish on the six-month outlook for stock prices for a record third consecutive week, according to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. Pessimism edged higher to 59.2% in the latest week from 57.1% last week, down a touch from a multiyear high of 60.6% reached just two weeks ago. “Markets have not fully priced those in (e.g., E.U. tariff wars that are just starting now, but more E.U.-specific tariff announcements are expected after April 1).” The Nasdaq was already well into correction territory heading into Thursday’s session and now sits more than 14% below its recent record. The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 is approaching a bear market, down roughly 19% from its high.

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The S&P 500 closed in correction territory on Thursday, or more than 10% off a recent high. Trump took to his Truth Social platform Thursday morning to threaten 200% tariffs on all alcoholic products coming from countries in the European Union in retaliation for the bloc’s 50% tariff on whisky. “This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” he wrote. Trump later remarked that he wouldn’t be changing his mind on a broader group of tariffs set to be implemented on April 2. Concerns that the US economy is showing signs of strain have receded after data this week showed inflation heading in the direction desired by the Federal Reserve, which holds its policy meeting next week.

That’s a level to watch but this is looking oco orders like a breakout in one of the (only?) undervalued pockets of the US equity market. “These companies have much thinner margins, so a rise in input costs hurts them more,” Carey Hall said. There is still seasonal good will to look forward to as we head into holiday season. I’ll be watching for rallies to accelerate, while the media fits a story around whatever comes next. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been struggling since October and last week’s gains didn’t change that. The Nasdaq had set up for a bear squeeze in the early part of November but has managed to break the squeeze.

Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, has started to rise from a trough, which could suggest that the upswing is growing in intensity. However, this indicator is still showing a relatively low reading, so watch for it to cross above the 25 mark. The index also closed above its upper Bollinger Band yesterday, which is another bullish sign.